Thailand’s opposition gains a significant election lead as army parties falter.

THAILAND (Reuters) – Thailand’s progressive opposition made early momentum in a preliminary election vote count on Sunday, building up a large lead over conservative parties linked with a military at the core of government for over a decade.

With a quarter of valid ballots tallied, the populist Pheu Thai Party, which has won every election since 2001 in various forms, was out in front in the early stages of the count, along with another opposition party, Move Forward.

The election on Sunday puts Move Forward and the wealthy Shinawatra family’s Pheu Thai against government parties supported by a nexus of old money, conservatives, and generals with sway over key institutions engaged in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy’s two decades of change.

The electoral commission was due to release preliminary election results later that evening.

The vote tally indicated that Bhumjaithai, a provincial party and coalition member, emerged in third place, ahead of the army-backed Palang Pracharat Party and Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha’s United Thai Nation party, which came to power in a 2014 coup.

Even as an alliance, opposition wins would not ensure that any party would govern, due to legislative procedures set by the military following the 2014 coup that are tilted in its favour.

Electing a prime minister and creating a government needs a majority in both the lower and upper chambers, and observers predict weeks of horse-trading before coalitions are formed and a prime minister is selected.

The Senate was appointed by the junta and is anticipated to vote in support of military-aligned parties or blocs.

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Srettha Thavasin, a real estate billionaire and one of Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial hopefuls, said it was early days, but the party was certain of victory.

“We’re still confident that when all the votes are in, we’ll have a lead,” he told reporters.

When asked about Move Forward, the possibility of an alliance, and who he would contact, Srettha answered, “Pro-democracy parties first.”

Pheu Thai is still enormously popular among Thai working-class people, and it has used nostalgia from its inexpensive healthcare, community loans, and a slew of handouts to sweep it back to power after three of its four administrations were deposed.

Move Forward saw a late-stage surge in polls and was counting on young people, including 3.3 million first-time voters, to turn out in force to support its liberal agenda, which included plans to dismantle monopolies, weaken the military’s political role, and amend a strict law on royal insults, which critics say is used to stifle dissent.

In a press conference, Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat ruled out any coalition with army-backed parties, predicting that they would lose power.

“The result is clear that there is a low chance of a minority government,” he remarked.

According to Prinya Thaewanarumitkul, assistant professor at Thammasat University’s Law Faculty, it is unclear what collaborations would emerge.

“We can say that the Pheu Thai party will lead the government, but which party will they choose?” Prinya said.